The election brought the ruling Labour Party (PL) its fourth victory, with nearly 52% of the vote. Third parties and independents collected just over 3.5% among them.

Malta Today’s survey underestimated the PL’s performance by over 1 percentage point and was remarkably precise in estimating the performance of the opposition Nationalist Party (PN), with a difference of less than half a percentage point. However, it predicted over 5% would go to third parties and a lower turnout than in 2022. This did not happen. Earlier surveys by Malta Today predicted an even larger share for third parties.

The Times of Malta overestimated the PL’s share of the vote by 1.7 percentage points and underestimated the PN’s by a similar margin. It does not look like much, but, taken together, the Times of Malta’s survey had the least accurate estimate of the gap between the two parties. The Times of Malta predicted a much larger gap in the PL’s favour, at 33,600 voters. The gap estimated in the April survey was much closer to the actual election outcome.

This survey was extremely precise in the estimate of third-party vote, placing it at 3.6%. Earlier surveys predicted a similar result.

The Times of Malta also made a very accurate prediction of the turnout, which was slightly overestimated. The turnout predicted in The Times of Malta’s 17th of June survey was 87.9% – very close to the actual figure of 87.4%.

The latest survey by Vincent Marmara also severely overestimated the gap between the two main parties, projecting it at 30,000. Accordingly, it overestimated the PL’s performance and underestimated the PN’s performance by under 2 percentage points to each side. 

It was precise (within half a percentage point) in estimating the share that third parties and independents would get. Across four surveys he conducted since February, the gap was consistent and much larger than it ultimately turned out to be. Turnout predictions in surveys earlier in May were similar to Malta Today’s and much lower than the actual turnout.

All in all, it appears that Malta Today’s survey was the most precise in capturing preferences between the two establishment parties, but overestimated the protest vote (third-party vote and non-voting). The Times of Malta and Vincent Marmara’s surveys predicted a much more favourable outcome for the PL than what materialised.

Third parties and independents took 10,689 votes in the general election, or 3.55% of the total, a marginal rise on the 3.15% they collected in 2022, and almost double the 1.29% recorded in 2017. 

Momentum, launched and led by long-standing candidate Arnold Cassola, was the best-performing third party at its first attempt, taking 1.54% of the vote. 

Cassola himself did the heavy lifting. He pulled 795 first-count votes in the 10th district, nearly double the 427 he scored there previously, and another 722 in the 9th. Mark Philip Camilleri Gambin also performed well in the 11th district, receiving 532 first-count votes.

It’s reflected in the overall district results. Momentum performed best on the 10th district (3.66%), 9th (3.16%), and 11th (2.35%), 

That result runs counter to the trajectory of ADPD, Malta’s longest-running third party. ADPD slipped from 1.61% in 2022 to 1.31% in 2026, losing about 750 votes, and ceding its position as the largest third-party. Leader Sandra Gauci announced she would step back from politics following the result.

Gauci was the third-best-performing third-party candidate, receiving 513 first-count votes in the 12th district and 455 first-count votes in the 6th.

Further down, Aħwa Maltin edged up to 0.60% (from 0.52% in 2022). Imperium Europa managed just 167 votes, only six more than the combined total of every independent candidate in the country.

Third parties ran a meaningful share of candidates this year. Of the 162 people on the ballot, just over 14% came from third parties. With eight candidates, ADPD had the largest representation, followed by Momentum and Aħwa Maltin with seven candidates each.

Yet representation on the ballot does not translate into a level contest. Third parties navigate an obstacle course of historical loyalties, a lack of media infrastructures for propaganda and donation marathons, and an Electoral Commission that supports the duopoly.

The Electoral Commission counts votes, publishes election results and campaign expenses, reviews electoral division boundaries, and can initiate suspending an election if it alleges illegal or corrupt practices. 

Under Malta’s decades-long political duopoly, the rule that the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition propose their members effectively means that only the dominant parties can significantly influence the institution’s make-up.

ADPD’s chairperson, Sandra Gauci, told Amphora Media that her party had to “fight tooth and nail” to get access to real-time voting counts through the Electoral Commission’s laptops. Momentum’s chairperson, Arnold Cassola, too, pointed out that PL and PN members received voting updates every five minutes, while smaller parties are excluded from the process.

The gap is projected to be between 18,000 and 19,000. This was conceded by the Nationalist Party (PN).

The turnout was higher than in 2022.

In 2026, total voter turnout reached 87.42%, up by 1.8% from 2022.

Across the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2017 general elections, the figure drifted downward yet never once fell below 92%. Then came 2022, when turnout slipped by roughly 7 points from the previous election to 85.6%.

The electorate itself has been steadily expanding. Between 2003 and 2022, the roll of registered voters grew by 19.2%, climbing from 297,930 to 355,075. By 2026, the number of eligible voters reached 356,832, a net gain of 1,767.

This year, the highest turnout was in the 7th district, and the lowest was in the 12th.

These are the results by district: